Tropical Depression NINETEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192003
1500Z TUE OCT 14 2003
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N  41.4W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N  41.4W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N  41.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 11.3N  42.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 11.9N  43.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 12.6N  44.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.3N  44.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.0N  45.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 16.5N  46.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.5N  46.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N  41.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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