Tropical Depression NINETEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192003
0900Z TUE OCT 14 2003
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N  40.5W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N  40.5W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N  40.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 10.4N  41.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 10.9N  43.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 11.4N  44.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 12.0N  45.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.0N  45.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 15.0N  46.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 17.5N  46.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N  40.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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