Tropical Storm LARRY

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TROPICAL STORM LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172003
2100Z THU OCT 02 2003
 
AT 5 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM VERACRUZ TO CAMPECHE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.  A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
WITHIN 36 HR.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N  93.6W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE  75SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 125SE 125SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 125SE 200SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N  93.6W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N  93.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.1N  93.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  75SW   0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 125SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.8N  93.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 125SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.5N  93.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  75SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 125SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.2N  93.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  75SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 125SE 125SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N  94.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  45SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 17.5N  94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 16.5N  95.5W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N  93.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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