Tropical Storm JUAN

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TROPICAL STORM JUAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152003
0900Z FRI SEP 26 2003
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N  61.9W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT.......175NE 100SE  50SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N  61.9W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N  61.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 32.5N  62.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...175NE 100SE  75SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 34.3N  62.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...175NE 125SE  90SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 36.3N  63.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE  90SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 38.4N  63.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE  90SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 46.0N  63.0W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE  90SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 50.5N  60.5W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N  61.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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