Tropical Storm JUAN

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TROPICAL STORM JUAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152003
2100Z THU SEP 25 2003
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N  61.8W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......175NE 100SE  20SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 175SE  50SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N  61.8W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N  61.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.0N  62.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...175NE 100SE  20SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.5N  62.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...175NE 100SE  30SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 35.0N  63.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...175NE 100SE  30SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 37.0N  63.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...175NE 100SE  30SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 42.0N  63.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...175NE 100SE  30SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 48.0N  60.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N  61.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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