Hurricane ISABEL

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HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  50
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132003
1500Z THU SEP 18 2003
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...
AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO
MORICHES INLET NEW YORK...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA...FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT
NORTHWARD...AND FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N  75.7W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT.......100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
50 KT.......150NE 100SE  80SW 125NW.
34 KT.......300NE 200SE 150SW 225NW.
12 FT SEAS..650NE 500SE 400SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N  75.7W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N  75.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 36.5N  77.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 75NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...150NE 100SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...300NE 200SE 125SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 39.7N  78.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
34 KT...200NE 200SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 44.5N  78.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 50.5N  77.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N  75.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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