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Hurricane ISABEL


ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132003
1500Z TUE SEP 16 2003
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE
RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH
MARYLAND...AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
 
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N  71.2W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  959 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT.......105NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.
50 KT.......140NE 140SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 300SE 300SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N  71.2W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N  71.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 28.4N  71.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT...105NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 29.9N  72.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT...105NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 31.7N  73.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT...105NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 33.8N  75.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE  90SW 120NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 125SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 39.0N  79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...250NE 200SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 47.0N  78.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 54.0N  71.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N  71.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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