Hurricane ISABEL

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HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132003
2100Z TUE SEP 09 2003
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N  47.8W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  948 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT.......100NE  50SE  50SW 100NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 175SE 175SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N  47.8W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  47.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.1N  49.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.6N  51.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.7N  53.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.8N  54.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.9N  57.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 22.0N  60.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 23.0N  64.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N  47.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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