Hurricane FABIAN

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HURRICANE FABIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102003
2100Z MON SEP 01 2003
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  57.8W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  942 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  45SE  25SW  45NW.
50 KT....... 75NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT.......120NE  75SE  75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE 150SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  57.8W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N  57.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.6N  59.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  25SW  45NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  75SE  75SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.5N  61.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  25SW  45NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  75SE  75SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 21.5N  62.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  45SE  25SW  45NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  75SE  75SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.0N  64.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  75SE  75SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 26.5N  66.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 31.5N  68.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 38.0N  68.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N  57.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI
 
 
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