Hurricane FABIAN

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HURRICANE FABIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102003
2100Z SAT AUG 30 2003
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  49.8W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  49.8W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  49.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.7N  51.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 18.0N  54.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.5N  56.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.5N  59.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 21.0N  62.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 23.0N  65.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 26.5N  68.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N  49.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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