Hurricane FABIAN

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HURRICANE FABIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102003
1500Z SAT AUG 30 2003
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  48.6W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  48.6W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  48.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.5N  50.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.5N  53.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 19.0N  55.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 19.5N  57.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.5N  61.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 22.0N  64.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 25.0N  67.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  48.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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