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Hurricane PATRICIA (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2003
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH A 25/1316Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
...INDICATES PATRICIA IS STILL A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED ENE-WSW AND THE CONVECTION
REMAINS DISPLACED WELL AWAY FROM THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED
CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE ALSO COME
DOWN WITH TAFB REPORTING AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5/25 KT...
WHILE SAB AND AFWA COULD NOT DETERMINE AN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE
AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT OVERPASS HAD SEVERAL UNCONTAMINATED 25-KT
WINDS AND A FEW 35-40 KT RAIN-CONTAMINATED SPEEDS. THEREFORE... A
COMPROMISE IS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY AND 30 KT IS MAINTAINED...
MAINLY IN BRIEF SQUALLS IN THE CONVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/6. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS BROAD AND CONTAINS SEVERAL SMALL SWIRLS WITHIN IT...
THE PRIMARY SWIRL THAT HAS MAINTAINED ANY CONTINUITY AND SOME
CONVECTION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IS THE ONE FARTHEST EAST. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW CENTER COULD DEVELOP A LITTLE MORE TO THE
WEST WITHIN THE LARGER LOW-LEVEL WIND ENVELOPE...BUT I AM STAYING
WITH THE ONE FARTHEST EAST DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR LIKELY
KEEPING THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TOWARD THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE NEW NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS MUCH LESS DIVERGENT THAN
IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE UKMET...GFDN...AND NOGAPS MODELS HAVE
ALL MADE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK SHIFT CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACKS...WHILE THE GFS HAS MADE A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT
NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE PATRICIA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
 
THE ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...COMBINED WITH WESTERLY SHEAR
AND THE LACK OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...SHOULD
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FROM OCCURRING. INTERMITTENT
BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY KEEP THE WINDS BARELY AT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR
STEADY WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW...AND
EVENTUAL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS
PATRICIA ONGOING A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS
...WHICH DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN 48 AND 24 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 16.2N 114.1W    30 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 16.9N 114.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N 114.6W    30 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 18.2N 114.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 18.7N 115.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 19.5N 115.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 20.5N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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