ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2003 PATRICIA REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE. NIGHTTIME VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAD COMPLETELY DISSIPATED NEAR THE ALLEGED LOW-LEVEL CENTER OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT HAS MADE A SLIGHT COMEBACK DURING THE PAST 1.5 HOURS. A 12Z SOUTHWEST WIND AT 14 KT AND 1010.0 MB PRESSURE REPORTED BY SHIP ELVF6 LOCATED ABOUT 125 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE ALLEGED SATELLITE CENTER SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE DEVELOPING ABOUT 120 NMI FARTHER TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...A MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION IS BEING MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND PAST POSITIONS...AND ALSO KEEPING THE CENTER TUCKED IN CLOSER TO THE RECENT BURST OF STRONGER CONVECTION FARTHER EAST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/5. DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS... PATRICIA HAS BEEN TRYING TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...MODERATE WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN FORCING/SHEARING THE CONVECTION EASTWARD...RESULTING IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND AN EAST-WEST ELONGATION IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY DIVERGENT AND THE TRACK PLOTS LOOK MORE LIKE A 'FOUNTAIN PATTERN'. THE GFDN IS THE EASTERNMOST MODEL AND TAKES PATRICIA NORTHEASTWARD ...WHILE THE GFS IS THE WESTERNMOST MODEL AND TAKES THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD. THE OTHER MODELS ARE EVENLY SPREAD OUT SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL REMAIN SLOW AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE APPARENT EAST-WEST ELONGATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS DISPLACED THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ABOUT 150 NMI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FROM OCCURRING. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A FEW BRIEF INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO KEEP PATRICIA BARELY ALIVE AS A DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARDS...DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...STRONGER WESTERLY SHEAR...AND COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND GRADUALLY CAUSE IT TO DISSIPATE...SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 15.6N 113.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 16.4N 114.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 17.1N 114.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 17.6N 114.6W 30 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 18.3N 114.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 28/1200Z 19.0N 115.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/1200Z 20.0N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:02 UTC