ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2003 PATRICIA HAS A VERY POOR SATELLITE APPEARANCE THIS MORNING...AS MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. EVEN WITH THE HELP OF RECENT TRMM...SSM/I...AND QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS VERY HARD TO FIND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON QUIKSCAT AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS POSITION. THE TRMM AND SSM/I...ALONG WITH SAB AND AFWA...SUGGEST THAT A NEW CENTER COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 120 NM EAST OF THE CURRENT POSITION. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CONVECTION IS FADING EVEN THERE THIS APPEARS RATHER DUBIOUS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. THIS MAY BE GENEROUS...BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP DURING THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM THE CYCLONE WILL STAY A TROPICAL STORM FOR ONE MORE ADVISORY CYCLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 340/4. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 25N120W...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 13N96W. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD STEER PATRICIA SLOWLY NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72. SEVERAL MODELS STILL CALL FOR RECURVATURE BEYOND THAT TIME...WHICH NOW APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE STATE OF THE STORM. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR PATRICIA TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS...AND THE CYCLONE MAY VERY WELL DISSIPATE BEFORE THAT CAN OCCUR. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINIES... ESPECIALLY IN THE INITIAL LOCATION...THIS FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS SLOW NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. PATRICIA LOOKS TOO POORLY ORGANIZED TO STRENGTHEN AT THIS TIME...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS INCREASING. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO ENCOUNTER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH THE SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASING THE FARTHER NORTH IT GETS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR NO STRENGTHENING FOR 36 HR AS PATRICIA ENCOUNTERS LIGHT-MODERATE SHEAR...FOLLWED BY WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR. PATRICIA COULD WELL DISSIPATE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 15.1N 113.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 15.8N 113.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 16.9N 114.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 17.6N 114.2W 35 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 18.1N 114.4W 30 KT 72HR VT 28/0600Z 18.5N 114.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 29/0600Z 20.0N 115.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC