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Hurricane PATRICIA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2003
 
IT IS DIFFICULT TO CONFIDENTLY ASSESS THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF
PATRICIA.  THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS EMBEDDED SOMEWHERE IN THE DEEP
CONVECTION...BUT THE LAST TWO MICROWAVE PASSES ONLY PARTIALLY
CAUGHT THE CYCLONE.  CERTAINLY PATRICIA IS HEALTHIER THAN IT WAS 24
HOURS AGO...WITH OUTFLOW EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN DAYS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED
SINCE 6Z...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE INCREASED TO 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 330/4...BUT THIS ESTIMATE IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  PATRICIA APPEARS TO BE ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE MEXICAN COAST. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA WITH A BROAD BAND OF WESTERLIES BETWEEN THIS LOW AND
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEST OR
SOUTHWESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS NORTH OF ABOUT 17N.  THE MAJOR TRACK MODELS
TAKE PATRICIA SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER
THAT...THE TRACK WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DEEP CONVECTION THE SYSTEM
CAN MAINTAIN AS PATRICIA GETS BACK INTO A STRONG WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW.  THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND EVEN THE GFS NOW TURN THE CYCLONE TO
THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE THE UKMET NOW
BENDS THE TRACK BACK TO THE WEST AND LOSES THE CYCLONE AFTER 3
DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET.

NOW THAT PATRICIA IS IN A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...SOME REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR.  THE SHIPS MODEL DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH INCREASE IN STRENGTH.  THIS IS PROBABLY BECAUSE IT
SEES TOO MUCH SHEAR NEAR THE CYCLONE...BUT IT IS LIKELY LOOKING
OVER TOO LARGE AN AREA AND CANNOT SEE THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
RIGHT OVER THE CYCLONE.  WITHIN 36 HOURS OR SO...THE WESTERLIES
ALONG WITH COOLER SSTS SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 14.5N 113.1W    40 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 15.2N 113.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 16.2N 114.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 17.4N 114.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 18.5N 114.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 19.5N 115.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     28/1200Z 20.0N 116.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     29/1200Z 20.5N 117.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
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