ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2003 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PATRICIA HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH TOPS OF COLDER THAN -80C NOW OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...PATRICIA WILL REMAIN A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORMING NEAR PATRICIA AND SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING THE SHEAR...AND THE CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP MAY BE TIED TO THAT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/6. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N124W WITH BROAD TROUGHING COVERING THE AREA NORTH OF 18N EAST OF 140W TO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO AN EAST-WEST TROUGH ALONG ROUGHLY 28N DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. IR IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSES SHOW WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF PATRICIA... AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE NOW CALLS FOR PATRICIA TO TURN NORTHWARD...AND ALL BUT THE UKMET SHOW A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AFTER 48-72 HR. THE UKMET FORECASTS PATRICIA TO TURN WESTWARD INSTEAD. FULL RECURVATURE STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY...AS A COMBINATION OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FORECAST STRONG SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE PATRICIA TO WEAKEN AS IT TRIES TO RECURVE. THUS...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE TO THE LEFT OF THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE NEW FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...CALLING FOR A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH 72 HR...THEN CALL FOR A SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD MOTION BEYOND 72 HR UNDER THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE CURRENT DECREASE IN THE SHEAR SHOULD BE TEMPORARY. INDEED...THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST IT TO INCREASE IN AS SOON AS 12 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL USE THE PREMISE THAT IT WILL TAKE LONGER THAN THAT FOR CONDITIONS TO WORSEN...AND THUS CALL FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR 36 HR. PATRICIA IS FORECAST TO CROSS INTO SUB-26C SSTS BY 72 HR WHILE MOVING INTO INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PATRICIA COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF NO STRENGTHENING OCCURS DURING THE FIRST 36 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 14.0N 113.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 14.7N 113.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 15.9N 114.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 25/1800Z 16.9N 115.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 26/0600Z 17.9N 115.6W 45 KT 72HR VT 27/0600Z 19.0N 116.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 28/0600Z 20.0N 117.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 29/0600Z 20.5N 119.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC