ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2003 THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8. THERE IS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW CENTERED NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS. AND A WEAK RIDGE JUST NORTH AND EAST OF PATRICIA. THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS TURN A STRENGTHENING STORM NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LOW WHILE THE GFS AND NOGAPS SHOW A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS TOWARD THE NORTHWARD SOLUTION...BUT IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ONLY ABOUT 10 MORE KNOTS OF STRENGTHENING BEFORE INCREASING SHEAR DOMINATES. THE GFDL AGGRESSIVELY TAKES THE WIND SPEED TO OVER 100 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE GFDL. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0900Z 10.9N 103.0W 55 KT 12HR VT 21/1800Z 11.3N 104.2W 60 KT 24HR VT 22/0600Z 12.0N 105.9W 65 KT 36HR VT 22/1800Z 12.6N 107.4W 70 KT 48HR VT 23/0600Z 13.3N 108.6W 70 KT 72HR VT 24/0600Z 15.0N 110.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 25/0600Z 17.5N 110.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 26/0600Z 20.5N 110.5W 50 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC