ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2003 OLAF IS WEAKENING INLAND...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST SO IT IS PRUDENT TO LEAVE THE WARNINGS UP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. OLAF SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE AND REMAINS THE MAJOR THREAT WITH OLAF. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 350/5. OLAF IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...TAKING OLAF FARTHER INLAND. GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY TRACKING THE CENTER... WHICH SUGGESTS THAT DISSIPATION MAY OCCUR SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 19.9N 104.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 20.9N 104.8W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 08/1200Z 22.3N 105.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 09/0000Z 23.8N 105.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC