ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2003 OLAF CONTINUES TO HAVE A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH A NEW CDO APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER...AND MAY HERALD SOME INTENSIFICATION. THE CUYUTLAN RADAR HAS STOPPED REPORTING AND THUS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION RELATIVE TO THE CENTER. CURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 65 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/8. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. OLAF IS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO WHICH SHOULD MOVE THE SYSTEM IN A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION. TWO OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS AND GFDL...ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS. HURRICANE NORA IS 450 NM TO THE WEST. SOME INTERACTION IS LIKELY AS THE THE TWO SYSTEMS MOVE TOWARD THE SEA OF CORTEZ. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE GIVING DIFFERENT INTERACTION SCENARIOS WITH EACH NEW FORECAST CYCLE. EXACTLY HOW MUCH DEPENDS ON THE INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE CYCLONES. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST THE TWO SYSTEMS ARE NOT VERY FAR APART BUT THEY WILL BE VERY WEAK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN ABOUT 72 HR...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK...AS INDICATED BY THE UKMET...COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE MUCH EARLIER. OLAF APPEARS TO BE IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 HR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING... ASSUMING THAT INTERACTION WITH NORA AND WITH THE MEXICAN COAST DOES NOT ADVERSELY AFFECT THE HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR STRENGTHENING FOR 48 HR...AND THEN KEEP A STEADY STATE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE FORECAST SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASES. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 18.7N 106.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 19.5N 106.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 20.6N 107.0W 70 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 21.8N 107.5W 75 KT 48HR VT 08/0600Z 22.9N 107.8W 80 KT 72HR VT 09/0600Z 25.2N 108.1W 80 KT 96HR VT 10/0600Z 27.6N 107.9W 35 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 11/0600Z...INLAND NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC