ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2003 OLAF CONTINUES TO HAVE A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS DISAPPEARED AND AS A RESULT THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED. HOWEVER...THE CUYUTLAN RADAR SHOWS A CIRCULAR EYE...ALBEIT OPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH GOOD BANDING PATTERN. EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MEASURED A 992 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND SURFACE WINDS AT 60 KTS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT WAS LIMITED IN TIME IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NOT OBSERVED. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 65 KTS. CURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/7. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. OLAF IS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...AND HURRICANE NORA IS 500 NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT OLAF AND NORA WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO INTERACT...AND THIS SHOULD TURN OLAF MORE NORTHWARD. INDEED...THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS...WHICH ARE THE TWO MODELS THAT BEST DEPICT THE INTERACTION...CALL FOR OLAF TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THIS APPEARS A BIT UNLIKELY...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT A LITTLE SLOWER AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AT ABOUT 96 HR...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE MUCH EARLIER. SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER OLAF...AND LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THROUGH 48 HR THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST OF THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AFFECTING NORA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONTINUED STRENGTHENING... ASSUMING THAT INTERACTION WITH NORA AND WITH THE MEXICAN COAST DOES NOT ADVERSELY AFFECT THE HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR STRENGTHENING FOR 48 HR...AND THEN KEEP A STEADY STATE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE FORECAST SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASES. INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED UPON RECON DATA AND 12-FOOT SEAS UPON SHIP OBSERVATIONS. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 17.8N 105.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 18.6N 105.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 19.7N 106.4W 70 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 20.8N 106.9W 75 KT 48HR VT 08/0000Z 22.0N 107.3W 80 KT 72HR VT 09/0000Z 24.2N 107.7W 80 KT 96HR VT 10/0000Z 26.6N 107.6W 35 KT...INLAND NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC