ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2003 OLAF HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION...AND THE RADAR AT CUYUTLAN IS SHOWING A PARTIAL EYEWALL. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB...65 KT FROM SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS...OLAF IS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE. CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE...SUGGESTING THAT SOME EASTERLY SHEAR STILL AFFECTS THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/9. OLAF IS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...AND HURRICANE NORA IS 540 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. AT FIRST GLANCE...THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE OLAF TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION CAUSED MAINLY BY DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS BOTH SHOW INTERACTION...WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN LOSE ONE OF THE CYCLONES BEFORE INTERACTION CAN OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING FOR OLAF TO PARALLEL THE COAST. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF THE UKMET AND NOGAPS...AND IF INTERACTION OCCURS IT MAY ALSO BE TOO SLOW. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST. SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER OLAF...AND LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THROUGH 72 HR THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST OF THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AFFECTING NORA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONTINUED STRENGTHENING... ASSUMING THAT INTERACTION WITH NORA AND WITH THE MEXICAN COAST DOES NOT ADVERSELY AFFECT THE HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR STRENGTHENING FOR 48-72 HR...AND THEN KEEP A STEADY STATE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE FORECAST SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASES. EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE... WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MEXICAN COASTDUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROPICAL STORM WINDS TO THE COAST AND THE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK. ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 17.1N 104.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 18.0N 105.1W 70 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 18.9N 105.8W 75 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 19.8N 106.4W 80 KT 48HR VT 07/1200Z 20.8N 107.1W 85 KT 72HR VT 08/1200Z 22.0N 108.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 09/1200Z 23.5N 109.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 10/1200Z 25.0N 110.0W 85 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC