ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2003 AN SSMI PASS AT 0210 UTC REVEALED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE CENTER. THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER WAS TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE BY ABOUT 45 NMI. THE 0600 UTC SATELLITE POSITIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE STILL TO THE LEFT OF THIS LOCATION. A COMPROMISE WAS TAKEN AND THE TRACK WAS RELOCATED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS BRINGS THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN MAINLAND. HOWEVER...A QUICKSCAT PASS WAS ALSO RECEIVED CONFIRMING THE LOCATION OF THE SSMI CENTER AND SHOWING THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. BASED UPON THIS DATA THE RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/8. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT SCATTERED WITH THE UKMET OFF TOWARD THE WEST AND THE GFDL CURVING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS AND NOGAPS ROUGHLY PARALLEL THE MEXICAN COAST AND MOVE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE MOUTH OF THE SEA OF CORTEZ. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE WHICH ALSO INCLUDES THE GUNS AND GUNA COMPOSITES. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS ASSUME KNOWLEDGE OF THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER. SINCE THE CENTER WAS INCORRECTLY LOCATED ON THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THE INTENSITY WAS TO HIGH. ON THIS PACKAGE THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 55 KTS. THE SHEAR OVER OLAF IS DECREASING AND FORECAST TO DECREASE FURTHER. THE SSTS WILL REMAIN GREATER THAN 28C THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR INTENSIFICATION AND LARGELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH MAKES OLAF A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST BRINGS 34 KT WIND RADII VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF THE COASTLINE IF THE CURRENT MOTION PERSISTS. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 16.7N 103.8W 55 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 17.5N 104.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 18.2N 105.2W 70 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 18.9N 105.8W 75 KT 48HR VT 07/0600Z 19.8N 106.4W 80 KT 72HR VT 08/0600Z 21.0N 107.1W 80 KT 96HR VT 09/0600Z 22.0N 108.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 10/0600Z 23.0N 109.0W 80 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC