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Tropical Storm OLAF (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2003
 
WHAT A DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT CAN MAKE. 
OLAF IS STARTING TO LOOK MUCH BETTER AND T-NUMBERS ARE
INCREASING...TAFB...4.0 AND SAB 3.5.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 60 KTS.  
 
THE LATEST POSITION GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/12.  THAT WAS
USED AS INPUT TO THE GLOBAL MODELS BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE INITIAL MOTION SHOULD BE SLOWER THAN THIS AND THE 0300 UTC
MOTION WILL BE DECREASED TO 300/10.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE GUNS AND GUNA COMPOSITES WHICH MOVE THE SYSTEM PARALLEL TO THE
COAST AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA.

THE SHEAR OVER OLAF IS DECREASING AND FORECAST TO DECREASE FURTHER.
THE SSTS WILL REMAIN GREATER THAN 28C THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR INTENSIFICATION AND LARGELY
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  OLAF SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE
SHORTLY.

THE FORECAST BRINGS 34 KT WIND RADII VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST
OF MEXICO IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF THE COASTLINE IF THE CURRENT
MOTION PERSISTS IN THE NEXT CYCLE OR TWO.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 15.8N 103.7W    60 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 16.5N 104.5W    70 KT
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 17.3N 105.3W    80 KT
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 18.1N 106.0W    85 KT
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 19.0N 106.6W    90 KT
 72HR VT     08/0000Z 20.4N 107.4W    90 KT
 96HR VT     09/0000Z 21.3N 108.2W    90 KT
120HR VT     10/0000Z 22.2N 108.9W    90 KT
 
 
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