ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2003 OLAF IS STILL STRUGGLING TO BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED. RECENT SSMI OVERPASSES AT 1500 AND 1608 UTC DEPICT AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH LITTLE OR NO BANDING FEATURES. HOWEVER...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 55 KT...WHICH ASSUMES THAT THE SURFACE WIND FIELD HAS CAUGHT UP TO THE INFRARED SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THE POSITION HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE WEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 300/9. MANY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODEL...DO NOT MAINTAIN A COHERENT CIRCULATION FROM WHICH TO OBTAIN TRACK GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES UPON THE GFDL...GFDN...AND NOGAPS AND TAKES THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. LARGELY DUE TO THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER...THIS FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE SHEAR CURRENTLY IMPACTING OLAF IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND THE SSTS WILL REMAIN GREATER THAN 28C THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION...BUT NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH FORECASTS A HURRICANE BY 12 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF OLAF. SINCE THE FORECAST BRINGS 34 KT WIND RADII VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AT 36 TO 48 HOURS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW FOR A PORTION OF THE COASTLINE. FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 15.3N 102.5W 55 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 16.2N 103.4W 60 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 16.9N 104.2W 70 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 17.6N 104.9W 75 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 18.2N 105.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 07/1800Z 19.5N 106.3W 80 KT 96HR VT 08/1800Z 20.5N 106.7W 75 KT 120HR VT 09/1800Z 21.5N 107.1W 70 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC