ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED OCT 08 2003 NORA IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NORTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO GENERATE BURSTS OF CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER...AND MAZATLAN HAS REPORTED 24 KT SUSTIANED WINDS WITH A GUST TO 34 KT IN THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT BASED ON THIS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY INTENSITY ESTIMATES. NORA SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO AFTER LANDFALL AND DISSIPATED WITHIN 24-36 HR. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN MAZATLAN AND LOS MOCHIS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/10. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 26N115W IS STEERING NORA INTO MEXICO....WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT NORA WILL TURN NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST BETWEEN LANDFALL AND DISSIPATION. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TRACK FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 23.6N 106.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 09/1200Z 25.0N 106.9W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 24HR VT 10/0000Z 26.5N 108.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC