ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2003 NORA REMAINS A SHALLOW CIRCULATION WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE SINCE NORA IS CLOSE TO LAND...AND IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NORA COULD REGAIN CONVECTION OVER EVEN WARMER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO STRONG AND PERSISTENT VERTICAL SHEAR. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BOTH FORECAST A 25 TO 30 KT SYSTEM FOR TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR DISSIPATION IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS...BUT IT RETAINS A REMNANT LOW OUT TO 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER...NOW 080/12. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE AHEAD AND TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. NORA IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER COLD LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS...WHICH TAKES THE REMNANT LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FORECASTER KNABB/LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 20.4N 109.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 21.2N 108.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 09/0000Z 22.3N 107.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 09/1200Z 23.5N 107.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 10/0000Z 24.6N 108.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC