ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2003 A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 12Z SHOWING 30 KT IN A BROAD AREA SOUTH OF THE CENTER WAS CONFIRMED BY REPORTS FROM A SHIP AND SOCORRO ISLAND AT 18Z. NORA HAS NO DEEP CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE DOES NOT REALLY QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...IN THE INTEREST OF SAFETY AND POTENTIAL CONTINUITY...I AM GOING TO CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING. NORA IS HEADED FOR WARMER WATERS AND IT IS NOT INCONCEIVABLE THAT IT COULD REGAIN CONVECTION AND TROPICAL STORM STATUS...ALTHOUGH I DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN BECAUSE OF THE SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. NEITHER THE GFDL NOR THE SHIP MODEL REDEVELOPS NORA...ALTHOUGH NEITHER ONE IS IN A HURRY TO GET RID OF IT EITHER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 090/9. NORA HAS BEEN MOVING FASTER...AS INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE WHOSE SPEED I LARGELY DISCOUNTED THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO BE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. NORA IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER COLD LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 20.1N 111.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 20.5N 109.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 08/1800Z 21.6N 108.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 09/0600Z 23.1N 108.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 09/1800Z 24.5N 109.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC