ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2003 ANOTHER QUIKSCAT PASS AT 13Z INDICATES THAT THE WINDS IN NORA CONTINUE TO COME DOWN...WITH ONLY SOME RAIN-FLAGGED 35 KT VECTORS. THE CYCLONE NOW HAS ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN ITS SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT. NORA IS OVER 26C WATER AND LOOKS TO BE NEARLY SURROUNDED BY STABLE AIR. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN AND DECAY OF THE SYSTEM...EVEN THOUGH WATER TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IF NORA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS STATIONARY. WITH THE RELOCATION OF OLAF AWAY FROM NORA...NO SIGNIFICANT BINARY INTERACTION IS EXPECTED...AND AS A RESULT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP A REFLECTION DOWN TO AT LEAST 850 MB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THAT SOULD BEGIN TO TAKE NORA SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY DIVERGENT...WHICH IS UNDERSTANDABLE GIVEN A DECAYING SYSTEM IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 20.2N 113.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 20.5N 113.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 21.0N 113.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 22.0N 112.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 08/1800Z 24.0N 111.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC