ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2003 WHILE THE DEPTH OF THE SURROUNDING CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING...NORA RETAINS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 90 KT FROM TAFB AND 102 KT FROM SAB. INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE UNCHANGED AT 90 KT. NORA HAS BEGUN MOVING MORE DIRECTLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/8. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND A RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND INTO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS. NORA WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED BY DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...WHILE MOVING SLOWLY AND TURNING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AS NORA REMAINS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 27C...AND WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER DUE TO STEADILY INCREASING SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER SSTS NEAR 26C. FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 17.7N 112.3W 90 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 18.5N 112.9W 95 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 19.7N 113.7W 95 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 20.5N 114.0W 85 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 21.1N 114.2W 70 KT 72HR VT 07/1800Z 22.3N 114.2W 55 KT 96HR VT 08/1800Z 23.4N 114.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 09/1800Z 24.5N 113.8W 35 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC