ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2003 NORA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED EYE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 90 KT FROM TAFB AND 102 KT FROM SAB. INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/6. THE FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS NORA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST AROUND A RIDGE OVER MEXICO INTO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS. THE GFS REMAINS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BUT IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS. A BAROCLINIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 120W AND CAUSE NORA TO SLOW CONSIDERABLY AND MOVE IN A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AS NORA REMAINS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 27C...AND WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER DUE TO STEADILY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER SSTS NEAR 26C. FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 17.2N 111.8W 90 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 18.0N 112.4W 100 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 19.3N 113.3W 100 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 20.2N 113.9W 90 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 20.8N 114.1W 80 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 21.5N 114.2W 65 KT 96HR VT 08/1200Z 21.9N 114.2W 50 KT 120HR VT 09/1200Z 22.4N 114.1W 40 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC