ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2003 NORA IS ALMOST A HURRICANE. RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES...FROM TRMM AT 1312 UTC AND SSMI AT 1513 UTC...REVEAL A FORMATIVE EYE AND INCREASED BANDING. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND HINTS OF AN EYE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION ARE APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...BUT RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE A FASTER MOTION THAN THIS MORNING...NOW 325/6. FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE AND PHILOSOPHY ARE OTHERWISE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THROUGH 72 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND UKMET. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER...THE MODEL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK AND AS A RESULT FOLLOWS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A VERY SLOW MOTION IN A VARIETY OF DIRECTIONS... IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING TO THE SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STATIONARY AT DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE. NORA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND OVER SSTS OF 27C OR GREATER FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL IN BRINGING THE STORM TO 70 KT IN 24 HOURS. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER...AS WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...AND THE CYCLONE SITS OVER 26C SSTS. FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 16.2N 109.9W 60 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 16.9N 110.4W 65 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 18.1N 111.3W 70 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 19.3N 112.2W 70 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 20.4N 113.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 21.5N 113.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 113.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 08/1800Z 21.5N 113.5W 30 KT NNNN
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