ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF NORA CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 55 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND KGWC. THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORA ON A SLOW NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH NORA MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND A WEAK RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE LEFT-MOST MODEL...PROBABLY DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE IT DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF NORA. AN APPROACHING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MAY CAUSE A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER. THE TRACK IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND THE THE SHIPS MODEL STRENGTHENS NORA TO A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWED THIS CLOSELY. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. IN THE LONGER RANGE...NORA SHOULD WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY AS SSTS DECREASE AND THE SHEAR BECOMES QUITE STRONG. FORECASTER BROWN/LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 15.1N 109.1W 50 KT 12HR VT 03/1200Z 15.3N 109.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 04/0000Z 16.0N 110.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 04/1200Z 17.0N 110.7W 65 KT 48HR VT 05/0000Z 18.0N 111.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 06/0000Z 20.0N 113.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 07/0000Z 22.0N 114.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 08/0000Z 23.5N 115.5W 35 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC