ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2003 VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS POSITION ESTIMATES...SO THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED ON THIS ADVISORY. BEST GUESS ON CURRENT MOTION IS STATIONARY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OR WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF 120W IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS...COMBINED WITH A WEAK RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST...IS EXPECTED TO STEER NORA ON A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER IF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST BECOMES MORE DOMINANT IT COULD CAUSE NORA TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND SIMILAR TO THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS. THE STORM HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A RAGGED BAND HAVING DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS NOW 40 KT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL COOLER WATER HALTS DEVELOPMENT. THIS INTENSITY PREDICTION IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED... HOWEVER...THAT PURELY DYNAMICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL AND THE GFS SHOW NORA WEAKENING. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 15.2N 109.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 15.3N 109.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 16.0N 110.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 16.7N 110.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 17.5N 111.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 20.0N 113.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 06/1800Z 22.0N 114.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 07/1800Z 23.5N 115.5W 40 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC