ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT...30 KT AND 25 KT RESPECTIVELY FROM TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC. THERFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE CENTER LOCATION IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. A SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A 12 HOUR MOTION OF 265/6 WAS USED AS THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE. THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE SYSTEM WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AROUND 48 HOURS AND BEYOND AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD TURN THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK REFLECTS THIS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS THE GFS DEVELOPS A SYSTEM EAST OF THE CYCLONE AND INDICATES SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME AND IS DISCOUNTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CLOSELY AND STEADILY INTENSIFIES THE DEPRESSION THROUGH 72 HOURS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 15.6N 108.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 15.6N 109.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 15.7N 110.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 16.1N 111.6W 50 KT 48HR VT 04/0000Z 16.7N 112.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 05/0000Z 18.0N 114.3W 60 KT 96HR VT 06/0000Z 19.0N 115.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 07/0000Z 20.5N 117.0W 50 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC