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Hurricane MARTY

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TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE SEP 23 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/10 BASED ON A POORLY DEFINED
CENTER POSITION ESTIMATE FROM INFRARED IMAGERY.  THE FORWARD SPEED
WAS 21 KNOTS ONLY 12 HOURS AGO.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT SHOULD QUICKLY BRING MARTY
TO A STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES KEEP MARTY AS A TROPICAL STORM AND A
RECENT 30-KNOT SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM PUERTO PENASAO SUPPORTS
THIS.  EXCEPT FOR A SMALL BURST NEAR THE CENTER...MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT MARTY
WILL WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER THIS MORNING AND WARNINGS WILL BE
LOWERED.  ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES DISSIPATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
IN FACT...FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND MARTY MAY ALREADY BE DISSIPATING.
 
MOISTURE OR RAINFALL FROM MARTY IS NEAR THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER
AND RAIN OVER WEST TEXAS MAY ALSO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MARTYS LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 29.8N 113.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 30.5N 113.8W    25 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 31.0N 114.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 31.0N 114.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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