ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2003 THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...BUT 22/2009Z TRMM AND 23/0117Z SSMI OVERPASSES INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAD REMAINED INTACT. HOWEVER...RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SANTA ROSALITA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE BECOMING ELONGATED...AND MAY BE STARTING TO DECOUPLE. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE SURFACE POSITION ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE MID-LEVEL SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77/65/45 KT FROM TAFB/ SAB/AFWA...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/18. THERE WAS SOME ACCELERATION TO 21 KT EARLIER...BUT THE RECENT MICROWAVE POSITION SUGGESTS THAT MARTY HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE. OTHERWISE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT ONLY DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE MICROWAVE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATIONS BEING CLOSER TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. MARTY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE IT GETS PICKED UP BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 800 NMI WEST OF SAN DIEGO. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS AFTER MOVING INLAND. THE LATTER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER UPPER-LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN CLOSE TO THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST TRACK AFTER THAT. WHILE THERE MAY A FEW BRIEF BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS...THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR STEADY WEAKENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OVER THE RATHER NARROW NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BECOMES CONSTRICTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MAINLAND AND BAJA MEXICO. THE GFDL AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SHOW THAT SOME OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FUTURE REMNANTS OF MARTY WILL PROBABLY AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 28.0N 112.3W 60 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 29.4N 112.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 31.0N 113.3W 45 KT...NEAR MAINLAND MEXICO 36HR VT 24/1200Z 32.0N 113.6W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 25/0000Z 33.2N 113.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 72HR VT 26/0000Z 34.2N 114.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 96HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND NNNN
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