ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/17. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES MOVING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MOTION BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS NEAR OR JUST INLAND FROM THE EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND BRINGS MARTY INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO ON TUESDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE WEAKENING AS THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH HIGH TERRAIN. THE WIND SPEED HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 65 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. EXCEPT FOR RAINFALL...MARTY IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG AFTER IT MOVES OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND FOR THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE EAST COAST OF BAJA AND FOR THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE MAINLAND. BOTH THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS NOW SHOW SOME RAINFALL OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 26.4N 110.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 27.7N 111.1W 60 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 29.4N 112.2W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 24/0600Z 30.7N 112.6W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 24/1800Z 31.5N 112.8W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 25/1800Z 32.5N 113.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 96HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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