ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/13. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES MOVING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MOTION BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS NEAR THE EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST TRACK AND IS ALSO SLOWED DOWN TO NEARLY STATIONARY AFTER 36 HOURS. ONLY THE GFDL MODEL SUGGESTS A TRACK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARTY MAY BE WEAKENING SOME AS THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN. BUT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTION AND MARTY COULD REMAIN A HURRICANE TODAY AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE WARM WATER OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THEREFORE THE WIND SPEED FORECAST IS FOR ONLY VERY SLOW WEAKENING FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES EXTENDING THE HURRICANE WARNINGS NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. IF THE GFDL MODEL IS CORRECT...THERE COULD BE A SPREAD OF MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 24.4N 110.0W 75 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 25.9N 110.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 28.2N 111.4W 65 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 29.9N 112.1W 40 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 24/1200Z 30.5N 112.3W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 25/1200Z 31.0N 112.5W 20 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC