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Hurricane MARTY

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HURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/13.  THE HURRICANE CONTINUES
MOVING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MOTION BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS
NEAR THE EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  FOLLOWING THIS
GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST TRACK AND IS ALSO SLOWED
DOWN TO NEARLY STATIONARY AFTER 36 HOURS.  ONLY THE GFDL MODEL
SUGGESTS A TRACK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN ABOUT 3
DAYS.
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARTY MAY BE WEAKENING SOME AS THE
CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN.  BUT THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTION AND MARTY COULD REMAIN A HURRICANE 
TODAY AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE WARM WATER OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA.  THEREFORE THE WIND SPEED FORECAST IS FOR ONLY
VERY SLOW WEAKENING FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
 
THE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES EXTENDING THE HURRICANE WARNINGS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
 
IF THE GFDL MODEL IS CORRECT...THERE COULD BE A SPREAD OF MOISTURE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 24.4N 110.0W    75 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 25.9N 110.6W    70 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 28.2N 111.4W    65 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 29.9N 112.1W    40 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 30.5N 112.3W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 31.0N 112.5W    20 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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