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Hurricane MARTY (Text)

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HURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2003

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE HAS STRENGTHENED AND
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 85 KT.  THERE IS LITTLE
TIME LEFT FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...SO MARTY IS EXPECTED TO BE
OF CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE AT
LANDFALL.  THE CIRCULATION WILL PROBABLY BE DISRUPTED SOMEWHAT BY
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN BAJA...BUT SOME
RE-ORGANIZATION/RE-STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR ASSUMING THE CENTER
MOVES BACK OVER WARM WATER.

THE MOTION IS NOW NORTHWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE.  MARTY IS
BEING STEERED PRIMARILY BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS REMAIN RATHER TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED...AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS FOR A NORTH TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  SINCE THE LATEST CENTER FIXES ARE A
LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
TAKES THE CENTER ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA AND INTO THE SEA OF
CORTES OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND APPROACHING THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO IN 24 HOURS.  THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST OF BAJA AND THE HURRICANE
WATCH IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO.

ALTHOUGH MARTY IS LIKELY TO BE DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 72 HOURS...IT WILL PROBABLY SPREAD SOME MOISTURE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY THAT TIME.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 22.6N 109.6W    85 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 24.4N 110.1W    75 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 26.7N 110.7W    80 KT
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 29.0N 111.3W    60 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 31.0N 111.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 33.0N 111.0W    25 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
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