ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA HURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2003 RE-TRANSMITTED ONLY...ORIGINAL VERSION CORRUPTED DURING TRANSMISSION THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/7 AND IT APPEARS THAT THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED SOME. THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE HURRICANE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD FOR ABOUT 3 DAYS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER 3 DAYS THE MODELS DIVERGE...THE GFDL MODEL HAS THE REMNANTS MEANDERING SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS HAVE MARTY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... AND THE NOGAPS SHOWS THE REMNANTS PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND MOVED EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE ABOVE GUIDANCE AND IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST. THE GFDL SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY DAY 3 OR 4. THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DETERIORATED TODAY AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT MARTY IS NEAR OR BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 65 KNOTS. HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL STILL FORECASTS STRENGTHENING TO ABOUT 80 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL AND THE GFDL IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE. BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE EAST...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO GUAYMAS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 20.5N 109.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 21.7N 109.8W 75 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 24.1N 110.4W 80 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 23/0600Z 26.6N 111.2W 65 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 23/1800Z 29.1N 111.9W 55 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 24/1800Z 31.5N 112.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 25/1800Z 34.0N 111.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 26/1800Z 36.0N 111.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC