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Tropical Storm MARTY

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TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2003
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/04.  THE 12Z GFS RUN SHOWS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA REPLACED BY A
CUT-OFF LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM 28N 140W OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE STORM ON A MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWARD TRACK.  THE GLOBAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON A
TRACK MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH OR CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN
48 TO 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BURSTING COLD CDO AND IMPROVING BANDING
AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC ARE 65/65/55 KNOTS. 
HOWEVER A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 15Z SHOWED NO WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 45
KNOTS.  THE ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS
AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS AND REACH 80
KNOTS IN 36 HOURS WITH LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 18.6N 108.6W    60 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 19.3N 109.2W    65 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 20.5N 110.3W    75 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 22.1N 111.3W    80 KT
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 24.2N 112.3W    80 KT
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 29.0N 114.5W    60 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 32.0N 114.0W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     25/1800Z 33.5N 113.0W    25 KT...INLAND
 
 
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