ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2003 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW AT 35 KTS AND 30 KTS RESPECTIVELY. ALSO...TWO SHIPS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED WINDS OF 30 AND 35 KTS. THEREFORE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MARTY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER AND SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK MAY BE REQUIRED WHEN VISIBLE IMAGES ARE AVAILABLE LATER THIS MORNING. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STIR THE SYSTEM IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AS PER THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER JARVINEN/FORMOSA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.2N 107.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.6N 109.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.1N 110.6W 55 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 18.7N 112.4W 65 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 19.0N 114.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 19.4N 116.9W 75 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 19.7N 119.8W 75 KT 120HR VT 24/0600Z 20.0N 122.8W 75 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC