ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2003 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KTS. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AS PER THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9...BUT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STIR THE SYSTEM IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEED THE TWO GLOBAL MODELS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...THE AVN AND GFDL. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 17.0N 106.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.4N 108.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 17.9N 109.7W 50 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 18.5N 111.4W 60 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 19.0N 113.2W 65 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 19.4N 116.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 19.7N 119.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 24/0000Z 20.0N 122.0W 70 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC