ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2003 LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT LINDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN LOOKS RAGGED. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT...MOST LIKELY AS IT CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE WEST. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED AN EXPOSED LLCC. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN LOWERING AND NOW THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/05. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK. WITH THE CONTINUING INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR FROM THE WEST...LINDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN 12 HOURS AND REMAIN AT THAT INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO IT MOVING OVER 27C OR WARMER WATER DURING THE PERIOD WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR BURSTS OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING IT AS A DEPRESSION. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL SHEAR THAT CAN PREVENT IT FROM MAINTAINING ITSELF AS A DEPRESSION. FORECASTER JARVINEN/AGUIRRE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 20.6N 116.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 20.5N 117.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 20.2N 118.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 19.8N 119.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 19.3N 119.9W 30 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 121.6W 30 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 17.8N 123.1W 30 KT 120HR VT 22/0000Z 17.3N 124.6W 30 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC