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Hurricane LINDA

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TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2003
 
LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT LINDA
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN LOOKS RAGGED.  THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT...MOST LIKELY AS IT
CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE WEST. VISIBLE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED AN EXPOSED LLCC. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE BEEN LOWERING AND NOW THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/05. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK. WITH THE CONTINUING
INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR FROM THE WEST...LINDA IS FORECAST TO 
WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN 12 HOURS AND REMAIN AT THAT INTENSITY
THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO IT MOVING OVER 27C OR
WARMER WATER DURING THE PERIOD WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR BURSTS
OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING IT AS A DEPRESSION. THE
SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL SHEAR THAT 
CAN PREVENT IT FROM MAINTAINING ITSELF AS A DEPRESSION.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN/AGUIRRE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 20.6N 116.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 20.5N 117.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 20.2N 118.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 19.8N 119.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 19.3N 119.9W    30 KT
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 18.5N 121.6W    30 KT
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 17.8N 123.1W    30 KT
120HR VT     22/0000Z 17.3N 124.6W    30 KT
 
 
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