ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2003 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT LINDA CONTINUES TO BECOME DISORGANIZED DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON AN AVERAGE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KT FROM TAFB...SAB... AND AFWA...AND SOME 40 KT UNCONTAMINATED WINDS NOTED IN A 16/1326Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS AGAIN NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CONVENTIONAL FIX LOCATION AND CLOSER TO THE 16/1553Z SSMI AND 16/1326Z QUIKSCAT POSITIONS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/05. IT APPEARS THAT LINDA HAS MADE THE TURN TO THE WEST THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS ALONG BUT SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS TRACK OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS LINDA GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER A 200 MB RIDGE AXIS AND OVER 27C OR WARMER SSTS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE INGESTS COOLER AND MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR FROM THE WEST...AND ALSO ENTRAINS DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT COULD KEEP THE CIRCULATION ALIVE AS A DEPRESSION OR EVEN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. BY 96 HOURS...THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS FORECASTING THE MID-LEVEL AIR TO MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO RE-DEVELOP. ACCORDINGLY...THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS LINDA BACK TO 46 KT IN 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LINDA TO REGAIN MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 96 HOURS...WHICH IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON WHETHER THE CIRCULATION SURVIVES THE NEXT 72 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 20.7N 116.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 20.7N 116.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 20.6N 117.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 20.1N 118.3W 30 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 19.6N 119.3W 30 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 18.8N 121.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 18.0N 122.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 21/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W 35 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC