ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LINDA HAS DEVELOPED A 25-30 NMI DIAMETER CLOUD-FILLED BANDED EYE. A 15/1733Z SSMI OVERPASS ALSO INDICATED A GOOD MID-LEVEL EYE AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. A 2-HOUR ODT AVERAGE IS T4.0...OR 65 KT...WITH A PEAK ODT OF T4.3 AT 1800Z. THEREFORE...LINDA IS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...MAKING IT ONLY THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE 2003 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF HURRICANES BY THIS TIME OF THE SEASON IS SIX TO SEVEN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS OR REASONINGS. LINDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND THEN TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT AS FAR WEST AS 120W LONGITUDE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...LINDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER WATER AND INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BE STEERED WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY A STRONG SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OFF THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF OR TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTERWARDS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS THE UKMET... GFS...AND NOGAPS MODELS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO ADVISORIES. THE OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE EAST...BUT IS BECOMING ELONGATED AND RESTRICTED TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...LINDA COULD STILL STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATER IN 24 HOURS OR SO. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT LINDA COULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST AT 96- AND 120-HOURS SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING MORE SOUTHWARD AND BACK OVER WARMER WATER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTER THAT. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 20.1N 113.6W 65 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 20.8N 114.8W 70 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 21.5N 116.0W 70 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 21.8N 117.1W 65 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 21.8N 118.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 21.5N 121.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 19/1800Z 21.0N 123.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 20/1800Z 20.5N 125.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC