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Tropical Storm LINDA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LINDA HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND NOW CONTAINS A BROAD AND RAGGED BANDING
EYE FEATURE. LINDA MAY BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BASED ON
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT...65 KT...AND 55 KT FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 60 KT...JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...
DUE TO THE VERY RAGGED LOOKING EYE FEATURE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
WESTWARD TO JUST NORTHWEST OF LINDA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HR WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY 36 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY WESTWARD AFTER
THAT. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON MOVING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTH AND GRADUALLY ERODE THE
RIDGE...AND CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH OF
LINDA BY 72 HOURS. WHILE LINDA COULD RECURVE AND MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEAKNESS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CALLING
FOR LINDA TO WEAKEN BY THAT TIME AND BECOME A MORE VERTICALLY
SHALLOW SYSTEM THAT IS STEERED WESTWARD...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH
72 HOURS...AND THEN A SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST
AFTERWARDS BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO
ADVISORIES.  LINDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
AND OVER WARM SSTS OF 26-28C FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. BY 36 HOURS
...LINDA WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 KT AND HIGHER.
THESE TWO NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD GRADUALLY INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING
INITIALLY...WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER 72 HOURS.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT LINDA COULD REMAIN A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN FORECAST AT 96- AND 120-HOURS SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL MOVING
OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 19.4N 112.8W    60 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 20.3N 113.9W    65 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 21.3N 115.4W    70 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 21.8N 116.7W    65 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 21.9N 118.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 22.0N 120.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 21.5N 122.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     20/1200Z 21.0N 125.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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