ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2003 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CLOUD PATTERN BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER OF LINDA. THE CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND IS BECOMING WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WITH IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS WERE 3.0 FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/8 AND HAS BEEN THE OVERALL MOTION FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AS THE STORM WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY A LOWER LEVEL FLOW. IN A LOW-SHEARED...WARM SST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE SHIPS MODEL INTENSIFIES LINDA TO 63 KT IN 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR AND FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COOLER SSTS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE/MAINELLI FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 18.0N 111.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 18.9N 112.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 20.2N 114.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 21.0N 115.6W 65 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 21.4N 117.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 21.6N 118.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 21.7N 120.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 21.7N 123.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC